Yet Another "Future of Gaming" Prediction

A couple of weeks back I learned about a group called the Independent Game Developers Association.  A few nights after that I had the privilege of meeting with some members of the local chapter.  Only four guys showed up my first night (including myself) but it was an experience that I look forward to repeating.

The IGDA conversation mostly revolved around console and PC games, which is a world largely unknown to me.  This is mostly because I haven't had the time to play them since the Super Nintendo was cutting edge.  For this reason, and others, my interest in games and game design is academic, primarily, and commercial, secondarily.  Despite being on the periphery in many respects, it was fascinating to listen to the conversation drift back and forth between developer talk and gamer talk. Being on the outside gave me an interesting perspective... all the while I couldn't help thinking that these guys were pretty old fashioned when it comes to gaming.

Pwnd!

For any IGDA guys who might be reading this, I mean no disrespect when I say old fashioned.  It's just that when I'm thinking about designing games and potentially making money from them, I don't see much opportunity in the whole console-PC arena.  Maybe I'm pessimistic, but for a small-time sucka like myself, there's not much room to break into that hyper-competitive billion dollar industry.  If there are trails to be blazed and money to be made, it's not going to be from putting new titles on the shelves at Best Buy.

So what does the future hold for those of us looking to make our mark on the gaming industry?  There's no shortage of opinions on the subject (ask Google), though it might be said that there is a shortage of originality.  In general, those looking toward the horizon see this:

1. Games will be increasingly social (whatever that means)
2. Virtual goods will be an important source of revenue
3. Game data will go online so that play may resume from any computer
4. Mobile device development, like the domestication of the dog, will continue unabated

There it is... the future of gaming in a nutshell.  Mind blowing.  Sarcasm aside, Point 3 is actually a really good one.  The idea of being tied to a PC or console will become increasingly antiquated as the need to install game software on your local machine declines (attribute this to the cloud, or whatever other dumb buzzword is currently in fashion).  Similarly, do not necessarily think cell phones when reading Point 4, because iPads are actually pretty nifty. They hold a lot of gaming potential, especially for the board variety I loathe so much. 

Now, can I interest you in a virtual coffee table?

So where does this leave us?  Well, it leaves me wondering what kind of sucker would actually pay for virtual goods.  I don't doubt that people do it, but I have a hard time picturing myself plunking down real-world cash to upgrade my avatar or obtain some super-awesome weapon essential to advancement in the game.  If I can't progress in the game without spending money, then that's where the game ends for me (I'm looking at you Tower Madness for iPhone).

This also leaves me in the sheepish position of wondering if the overall future of gaming is too obvious to state.  Maybe, but I'm going to do it anyway... we're going to see a lot more targeted advertising within games. Of course, this already happens to a limited degree, but not nearly to the extent it could.  For the most part, game designers have not yet been able to properly exploit what Facebook does best: collect demographic data.  With Facebook, advertisers can effectively target a group of people with an unprecedented degree of specificity.  Contrast Facebook with radio advertising, by way of example.  Radio stations gear themselves toward a gender and a generation.  The 25-34 year old female demographic, for example, is the most coveted in the industry.  Facebook, on the other hand, is capable of narrowing that range to the point where a person's stated interests may be considered when placing advertising within the game.  Facebook's own advertising reflects this fact, though they still don't share the revenue  third-party developers generate, for some reason.

Ooooh! 30% off Canesten!

It sucks that Facebook doesn't give its developers a piece of the advertising action, but don't hold that against them, because they offer something of value for free: the demographic data developers need to make money with targeted advertising!  With that data there's really no limit to how such advertising might be integrated into a game.  It may be as simple as putting a product on a virtual billboard, or as complex as constructing a Pampers display at a virtual grocery store because the advertisers know that a certain new mother likes to play The Sims while on maternity leave.  This kind of targeted advertising only works because of the broad gaming trends named previously... especially the social aspect, without which the demographic data would not be generated.

For game developers there isn't anything particularly challenging about constructing a profile of your user and inserting new ads every time he signs in.  The challenge will lie in not allowing that integration to compromise the structure or playability of the game itself.  In-game advertising must be as ubiquitous as real-world advertising, while being similarly inconspicuous.  It's like selling virtual goods without placing the financial burden on the user.